COVID-19: Focusing on the Link between Inflammation, Vitamin D, MAPK Pathway and Oxidative Stress Genetics.

An uncontrolled inflammatory response during SARS-CoV-2 infection has been highlighted in several studies. This seems to be due to pro-inflammatory cytokines whose production could be regulated by vitamin D, ROS production or mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK). Several genetic studies are present in the literature concerning genetic influences on COVID-19 characteristics, but there are few data on oxidative stress, vitamin D, MAPK and inflammation-related factors, considering gender and age. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the role of single nucleotide polymorphisms in these pathways, clarifying their impact in affecting COVID-19-related clinical features. Genetic polymorphisms were evaluated through real-time PCR. We prospectively enrolled 160 individuals: 139 patients were positive for SARS-CoV-2 detection. We detected different genetic variants able to affect the symptoms and oxygenation. Furthermore, two sub-analyses were performed considering gender and age, showing a different impact of polymorphisms according to these characteristics. This is the first study highlighting a possible contribution of genetic variants of these pathways in affecting COVID-19 clinical features. This may be relevant in order to clarify the COVID-19 etiopathogenesis and to understand the possible genetic contribution for further SARS infections.

COVID-19: A Possible Contribution of the MAPK Pathway.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is characterized by an uncontrolled inflammatory response with high pro-inflammatory cytokine production through the activation of intracellular pathways, such as mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK). Viruses are able to exploit the MAPK pathway to their advantage; this pathway relevance to severe COVID-19 is poorly described. The aim of this study was to quantify biomarkers involved in the MAPK pathway and to clarify its possible role in affecting some COVID-19-related clinical features. METHODS: H-RAS, C-RAF, MAPK1, MAPK2, and ERK were quantified through ELISA, and genetic polymorphisms were evaluated through real-time PCR. RESULTS: We prospectively recruited 201 individuals (158 positive and 43 negative for SARS-CoV-2): 35 were male, and their median age was 65 years. MAPK-related biomarker levels were increased in SARS-CoV-2-positive participants (n = 89) compared to negative ones (n = 29). Dyspnea was reported by 48%; this symptom was associated with PBMC C-RAF levels in positive participants (p = 0.022) and type of ventilation (p = 0.031). The highest degree of ventilation was used by 8% for invasive ventilation and 41% for continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study that showed a possible contribution of MAPK-related biomarkers in affecting COVID-19 clinical features, and this may be relevant for identifying COVID-19 positive participants at risk of serious complications.

Dementia, infections and vaccines: 30 years of controversy.

This paper reports the proceedings of a virtual meeting convened by the European Interdisciplinary Council on Ageing (EICA), to discuss the involvement of infectious disorders in the pathogenesis of dementia and neurological disorders leading to dementia. We recap how our view of the infectious etiology of dementia has changed over the last 30 years in light of emerging evidence, and we present evidence in support of the implication of infection in dementia, notably Alzheimer's disease (AD). The bacteria and viruses thought to be responsible for neuroinflammation and neurological damage are reviewed. We then review the genetic basis for neuroinflammation and dementia, highlighting the genes that are currently the focus of investigation as potential targets for therapy. Next, we describe the antimicrobial hypothesis of dementia, notably the intriguing possibility that amyloid beta may itself possess antimicrobial properties. We further describe the clinical relevance of the gut-brain axis in dementia, the mechanisms by which infection can move from the intestine to the brain, and recent findings regarding dysbiosis patterns in patients with AD. We review the involvement of specific pathogens in neurological disorders, i.e. SARS-CoV-2, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV1), and influenza. Finally, we look at the role of vaccination to prevent dementia. In conclusion, there is a large body of evidence supporting the involvement of various infectious pathogens in the pathogenesis of dementia, but large-scale studies with long-term follow-up are needed to elucidate the role that infection may play, especially before subclinical or clinical disease is present.

Safety and immunogenicity of the FINLAY-FR-1A vaccine in COVID-19 convalescent participants: an open-label phase 2a and double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, phase 2b, seamless, clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: A phase 1, clinical trial to evaluate FINLAY-FR-1A vaccine in COVID-19 convalescent individuals was completed. Here, we report results of the phase 2, clinical trial. METHODS: We studied 450 convalescent participants with a history of asymptomatic, mild, or moderate COVID-19 at the National Institute of Hematology and Immunology and the National Centre for Sexual Education in Havana, Cuba. The study included adults aged 19-78 years who had recovered from COVID-19 and had had a negative PCR test at least 2 months before the initiation of the study. Phase 2 was done sequentially in two stages. The first stage to assess safety comprised an open, non-controlled phase 2a study in participants aged 60-78 years who received a single dose of the FINLAY-FR-1A vaccine (50 µg of recombinant dimeric receptor binding domain [RBD]). The second stage comprised the placebo-controlled, double-blind, phase 2b trial in participants aged 19-78 years, where participants were randomly assigned (4:1) into two groups: an experimental group vaccinated with a single dose of the FINLAY-FR-1A vaccine, and a control (placebo) group injected with vaccine excipient. The primary outcomes were safety, evaluated 28 days after vaccination by the occurrence of serious adverse events in all participants, and successful immune response, assessed by neutralising antibody ELISA, and defined as half-maximal surrogate virus neutralisation titres of 250 or more. Secondary endpoints included vaccine immunogenicity assessed by ELISA anti-RBD and live-virus neutralisation test. All randomly assigned participants were included in the safety analysis (safety population), and immunogenicity was evaluated in participants without study interruptions (per-protocol population). The trial is registered with the Cuban Public Registry of Clinical Trials, RPCEC00000366-En and WHO-ICTRP and is complete. FINDINGS: From April 9, 2021, to April 17, 2021, 663 COVID-19 convalescent participants were enrolled in the study; 213 participants did not meet the selection criteria and 450 volunteers were recruited. 20 participants aged 60-78 years were included in the open, single-group, phase 2a study and 430 participants were randomly assigned to the experimental (n=344) or control groups (n=86) in the phase 2b study of participants aged 19-78 years. 19 (95%) of 20 phase 2a volunteers achieved a successful immune response after vaccination. No vaccine-associated serious adverse events were reported in the whole study population. Minor adverse events were found, the most common being pain at the injection site (105 [29%] of 364 in the intervention group; 13 [15%] of 86 in the placebo group). A successful immune response was found in 289 (81%) of 358 participants 28 days after vaccination. The vaccine elicited a greater than 31-times increase in anti-RBD-IgG antibodies compared with prevaccination rates, and the seroconversion rate was 302 (84%) of 358 on day 28 after vaccination; the geometric mean titres of live-virus neutralisation test increased from 15·4 (95% CI 10·3-23·2) to 400·3 (272·4-588·1) and high response was found against alpha, beta, and delta variants of concern. INTERPRETATION: A single dose of the FINLAY-FR-1A vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 strengthened the pre-existing natural immunity, with excellent safety profile. FUNDING: Cuba's Ministry of Science, Technology, and Environment.

Convalescent or standard plasma versus standard of care in the treatment of COVID-19 patients with respiratory impairment: short and long-term effects. A three-arm randomized controlled clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of early treatment with convalescent plasma in patients with COVID-19 is debated. Nothing is known about the potential effect of other plasma components other than anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. METHODS: To determine whether convalescent or standard plasma would improve outcomes for adults in early phase of Covid19 respiratory impairment we designed this randomized, three-arms, clinical trial (PLACO COVID) blinded on interventional arms that was conducted from June 2020 to August 2021. It was a multicentric trial at 19 Italian hospitals. We enrolled 180 hospitalized adult patients with COVID-19 pneumonia within 5 days from the onset of respiratory distress. Patients were randomly assigned in a 1:1:1 ratio to standard of care (n = 60) or standard of care + three units of standard plasma (n = 60) or standard of care + three units of high-titre convalescent plasma (n = 60) administered on days 1, 3, 5 after randomization. Primary outcome was 30-days mortality. Secondary outcomes were: incidence of mechanical ventilation or death at day 30, 6-month mortality, proportion of days with mechanical ventilation on total length of hospital stay, IgG anti-SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion, viral clearance from plasma and respiratory tract samples, and variations in Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score. The trial was analysed according to the intention-to-treat principle. RESULTS: 180 patients (133/180 [73.9%] males, mean age 66.6 years [IQR 57-73]) were enrolled a median of 8 days from onset of symptoms. At enrollment, 88.9% of patients showed moderate/severe respiratory failure. 30-days mortality was 20% in Control arm, 23% in Convalescent (risk ratio [RR] 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.61-2.13, P = 0.694) and 25% in Standard plasma (RR 1.23; 95%CI, 0.63-2.37, P = 0.544). Time to viral clearance from respiratory tract was 21 days for Convalescent, 28 for Standard plasma and 23 in Control arm but differences were not statistically significant. No differences for other secondary endpoints were seen in the three arms. Serious adverse events were reported in 1.7%, 3.3% and 5% of patients in Control, Standard and Convalescent plasma arms respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Neither high-titer Convalescent nor Standard plasma improve outcomes of COVID-19 patients with acute respiratory failure. Trial Registration Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT04428021. First posted: 11/06/2020.

Real-life Evidence of Lower Lung Virulence in COVID-19 Inpatients Infected with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant Compared to Wild-Type and Delta SARS-CoV-2 Pneumonia.

In vitro and animal models described lower replication capacity and virulence of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron lineage in lower respiratory airways compared to wild type and other variants of concern (oVOCs). Among adult subjects admitted to our hospital (Turin, Italy) due to wild type, oVOCs, and Omicron SARS-CoV-2-related pneumonia (n = 100 for each lineage), the cases of Omicron pneumonia showed lower degree of lung parenchyma involvement (aß -1.471, p = 0.037), less tendency to parenchyma consolidation (aOR 0.500, p = 0.011), and better respiratory functions (assessed by ambient air arterial blood gas analysis). After adjusting for demographic, previous immunity, and comorbidities, Omicron pneumonia still associated with lower risk of respiratory failure (for severe respiratory failure, Wild-type versus Omicron aOR 15.6, p = 0.005 and oVOCs versus Omicron aOR 31.7, p < 0.001). These observations are in line with preliminary findings from in vitro and animal models and could explain why Omicron infection has been associated with lower mortality and hospitalization in human.

Determinants of SARS-CoV-2 Contagiousness in Household Contacts of Symptomatic Adult Index Cases.

Background: Identifying determinants of the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in settings of contagion is fundamental to inform containment strategies. We assessed SARS-CoV-2 cycle threshold value (Ct) from the first diagnostic nasal-pharyngeal swab of symptomatic index cases and which demographic or clinical characteristics among cases and contacts are associated with transmission risk within households. Methods: This is a retrospective prevalence study on secondary SARS-CoV-2 cases (SC) among the household contacts of symptomatic adult index cases randomly sampled from all the SARS-CoV-2-positive diagnostic nasopharyngeal swabs analyzed at our regional referral hospital (Amedeo di Savoia Hospital, Turin, Italy) in March, 2020. Index cases underwent a telephone survey to collect their demographic and clinical data and all their household contacts. The Ct value of RdRp gene from the first diagnostic swab of index cases was recorded and index cases were grouped according to Ct tertiles (A < first tertile, first ≤ B ≤ second tertile, C ≥ second tertile). Post hoc analysis was performed in SC as well as contacts that did not undergo SARS-CoV-2 testing but developed compatible signs and symptoms. Non-parametric tests and generalized linear models were run. Results: Index (n = 72) and contact (n = 164) median age was 54 (48-63) and 32 (20-56) years, respectively. A total of 60, 50, and 54 subjects were contacts of group A, B, and C index cases, respectively; 35.9% of contacts were SC. Twenty-four further subjects (14.6%) met the criteria for symptom-based likely positive SC. The secondary attack rate was 36.0% (28.6-43.4), assuming a mean incubation period of 5 days and a maximum infectious period of 20 days. SC prevalence differed between Ct groups (53.3% A, 32.0% B, 20.4% C; p < 0.001). No difference in SC was found according to sex, presence of signs/symptoms, and COVID-19 severity of index cases, or according to contacts' sex and number per household. The age of both index cases [aOR 4.52 (1.2-17.0) for 60 vs. ≤45 years old] and contacts [aOR 3.66 (1.3-10.6) for 60 vs. ≤45years old] and the Ct of the index [aOR 0.17 (0.07-0.4) for Ct ≥ 31.8 vs. Ct < 24.4] independently associated with SC risk. Sensitivity analysis including symptoms-based likely positive SC supported all the previous results. Conclusion: In confined transmission settings such as households, PCR Ct values may inform on the contagiousness of infected subjects and age may modulate transmission/contagion risk.

Monthly Increase in Vitamin D Levels upon Supplementation with 2000 IU/Day in Healthy Volunteers: Result from "Integriamoci", a Pilot Pharmacokinetic Study.

Vitamin D (VD) is a calcium- and phosphate-controlling hormone used to treat bone disorders; yet, several other effects are progressively emerging. VD deficiency is highly prevalent worldwide, with suboptimal exposure to sunlight listed among the leading causes: oral supplementation with either cholecalciferol or calcitriol is used. However, there is a scarcity of clinical studies investigating how quickly VD concentrations can increase after supplementation. In this pilot study, the commercial supplement ImmuD3 (by Erboristeria Magentina®) was chosen as the source of VD and 2000 IU/day was administered for one month to 21 healthy volunteers that had not taken any other VD supplements in the previous 30 days. Plasma VD levels were measured through liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry after 7, 14, and 28 days of supplementation. We found that 95% of the participants had insufficient VD levels at baseline (<30 ng/mL; median 23.72 ng/mL; IQR 18.10-26.15), but after 28 days of supplementation, this percentage dropped to 62% (median 28.35 ng/mL; IQR 25.78-35.20). The median increase in VD level was 3.09 ng/mL (IQR 1.60-5.68) after 7 days and 8.85 ng/mL (IQR 2.85-13.97F) after 28 days. This study suggests the need for continuing VD supplementation and for measuring target level attainment.

Clinical Phenotype and Contagiousness of Early Breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 Infections after BNT162b2 COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine: A Parallel Cohort Study in Healthcare Workers.

We evaluated the clinical protection of BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine in healthcare workers (HCWs) and how COVID-19 manifestations and contagiousness change as the time since first dose increases. A matched (1:2 ratio) parallel cohort study was performed. During the first three months of vaccination campaign, HCWs of the entire health district ASL Città di Torino (Turin, Italy) were classified according to SARS-CoV-2-positivity in respect of the vaccination schedule: post-first-dose (fHCWs, <12 days), partially (PHCWs, ≥12 from first dose to ≤7 days after the second), and totally vaccinated (THCWs, ≥8 days after the second dose). Age-/sex-matched unvaccinated controls were randomly selected from all the SARS-CoV-2-positivity detected in the same district and period. Previous infections were excluded. Clinical and virologic data (ORF1ab gene cycle threshold values, Ct) were recorded. In total, 6800 HCWs received at least one dose, and 55 tested positive subsequently: 20 fHCWs, 25 PHCWs, 10 THCWs. Furthermore, 21.8% of breakthrough infections were in male, with a median age of 49 years (32-56), and 51.4% occurred while SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant was predominant. The incident relative risk was 0.13 (0.12-0.15) for PHCWs and 0.06 (0.05-0.07) for THCWs. Compared to controls (n = 110), no difference was observed in fHCWs, while PHCWs and THCWs showed higher prevalence of asymptomatic infections, fewer signs/symptoms with a milder systemic involvement, and significantly higher Ct values (PHCWs 30.3 (24.1-35.5) vs. 22.3 (19.6-30.6), p = 0.023; THCWs 35.0 (31.3-35.9) vs. 22.5 (18.2-30.6), p = 0.024). Duration of symptoms was also shorter in THCWs (5 days (3-6) vs. 9 (7-14), p = 0.028). A linear increase of 3.81 points in Ct values was observed across the groups by vaccination status (p = 0.001) after adjusting for age, sex, comorbidities, and time between COVID-19 onset and swab collection. BNT162b2 decreased the risk of PCR-confirmed infections and severe disease, and was associated with a virologic picture of lesser epidemiologic concern as soon as 12 days after the first vaccine dose.

Vitamin D as Modulator of Drug Concentrations: A Study on Two Italian Cohorts of People Living with HIV Administered with Efavirenz.

To date, vitamin D seems to have a significant role in affecting the prevention and immunomodulation in COVID-19 disease. Nevertheless, it is important to highlight that this pro-hormone has other several activities, such as affecting drug concentrations, since it regulates the expression of cytochrome P450 (CYP) genes. Efavirenz (EFV) pharmacokinetics is influenced by CYPs, but no data are available in the literature concerning the association among vitamin D levels, seasonality (which affects vitamin D concentrations) and EFV plasma levels. For this reason, the aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of 25-hydroxy vitamin D (25(OH)D3) levels on EFV plasma concentrations in different seasons. We quantified 25(OH)D3 by using chemiluminescence immunoassay, whereas EFV plasma concentrations were quantified with the HPLC-PDA method. A total of 316 patients were enrolled in Turin and Rome. Overall, 25(OH)D3levels resulted in being inversely correlated with EFV concentrations. Some patients with EFV levels higher than 4000 ng/mL showed a deficient 25(OH)D3 concentration in Turin and Rome cohorts and together. EFV concentrations were different in patients without vitamin D supplementation, whereas, for vitamin D-administered individuals, no difference in EFV exposure was present. Concerning seasonality, EFV concentrations were associated with 25(OH)D3 deficiency only in winter and in spring, whereas a significant influence was highlighted for 25(OH)D3 stratification for deficient, insufficient and sufficient values in winter, spring and summer. A strong and inverse association between 25(OH)D3and EFV plasma concentrations was suggested. These data suggest that vitamin D is able to affect drug exposure in different seasons; thus, the achievement of the clinical outcome could be improved by also considering this pro-hormone.

The Manifesto of Pharmacoenosis: Merging HIV Pharmacology into Pathocoenosis and Syndemics in Developing Countries.

Pathocoenosis and syndemics theories have emerged in the last decades meeting the frequent need of better understanding interconnections and reciprocal influences that coexistent communicable and non-communicable diseases play in a specific population. Nevertheless, the attention to pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamics interactions of co-administered drugs for co-present diseases is to date limitedly paid to alert against detrimental pharmacological combos. Low and middle-income countries are plagued by the highest burden of HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, and helminthiasis, and they are experiencing an alarming rise in non-communicable disorders. In these settings, co-infections and comorbidities are common, but no tailored prescribing nor clinical trials are used to assess and exploit existing opportunities for the simultaneous and potentially synergistic treatment of intertwined diseases. Pharmacoenosis is the set of interactions that take place within a host as well as within a population due to the compresence of two or more diseases and their respective treatments. This framework should pilot integrated health programmes and routine clinical practice to face drug-drug interaction issues, avoiding negative co-administrations but also exploiting potential favourable ones to make the best out of the worst situations; still, to date, guiding data on the latter possibility is limited. Therefore, in this narrative review, we have briefly described both detrimental and favourable physiopathological interactions between HIV and other common co-occurring pathologies (malaria, tuberculosis, helminths, and cardiovascular disorders), and we have presented examples of advantageous potential pharmacological interactions among the drugs prescribed for these diseases from a pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics, and pharmacogenetics standpoint.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Among Workers in Northern Italy.

BACKGROUND: The spread of severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) among active workers is poor known. The aim of our study was to evaluate the seroprevalence of immunoglobulin G (IgG) among a convenience sample of workers and to identify high-risk job sectors during the first pandemic way. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study among workers tested for SARS-CoV-2 between 28 March and 7 August 2020, recorded by a private healthcare center located in North-West Italy. Association among seroprevalence and demographic and occupational variables was evaluated using chi square test and the seroprevalence and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. RESULTS: We collected the results for 23568 serological tests from a sample of 22708 workers from about 1000 companies. Median age was 45 years and about 60% of subjects were male. The overall seroprevalence was 4.97% [95%CI 4.69-5.25]. No statistical difference was found among gender while seroprevalence was associated with subjects' age, geographical location, and occupational sector. Significantly higher values of positivity were observed for the logistics sector (31.3%), weaving factory (12.6%), nursing homes (9.8%), and chemical industry (6.9%) workers. However, we observed some clusters of cases in single companies independently from the sector.Then, a detailed focus on 940 food workers shown a seroprevalence of 5.21% [95%CI 3.79-6.63] and subjects who self-reported COVID-19 symptoms and who worked during lockdown had a higher probability of being infected (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Data obtained might be useful for future public health decision; more than occupation sector, it seems that failure on prevention system in single companies increase the SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Analytical Validation and Clinical Application of Rapid Serological Tests for SARS-CoV-2 Suitable for Large-Scale Screening.

Recently, large-scale screening for COVID-19 has presented a major challenge, limiting timely countermeasures. Therefore, the application of suitable rapid serological tests could provide useful information, however, little evidence regarding their robustness is currently available. In this work, we evaluated and compared the analytical performance of a rapid lateral-flow test (LFA) and a fast semiquantitative fluorescent immunoassay (FIA) for anti-nucleocapsid (anti-NC) antibodies, with the reverse transcriptase real-time PCR assay as the reference. In 222 patients, LFA showed poor sensitivity (55.9%) within two weeks from PCR, while later testing was more reliable (sensitivity of 85.7% and specificity of 93.1%). Moreover, in a subset of 100 patients, FIA showed high sensitivity (89.1%) and specificity (94.1%) after two weeks from PCR. The coupled application for the screening of 183 patients showed satisfactory concordance (K = 0.858). In conclusion, rapid serological tests were largely not useful for early diagnosis, but they showed good performance in later stages of infection. These could be useful for back-tracing and/or to identify potentially immune subjects.

Early low-molecular-weight heparin administration is associated with shorter time to SARS-CoV-2 swab negativity.

BACKGROUND: Antiviral and immune-modulating properties of low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) against Coronaviridae have been reported by in vitro studies, but no in vivo evidence is yet available. We sought to know whether the timing of prophylactic doses of LMWH during the course of COVID-19 may affect the time to SARS-CoV-2 nasal-oropharyngeal swab negativization. METHODS: Retrospective monocentric cross-sectional study on patients requiring sub-intensive ward admission due to first SARS-CoV-2 infection and undergoing early (EH; within 7 days from COVID-19 signs and symptoms onset) versus delayed prophylactic LMWH (DH; after 7 days). SARS-CoV-2 RNA was measured by reverse transcription real-time PCR according to scheduled time points: first swab after 2 weeks from COVID-19 onset, then at 1-week intervals until negativity. RESULTS: Time to SARS-CoV-2 swab negativity was shorter in EH (38 patients) compared with DH (55 patients): 22 versus 37 days (P=0.004). The number of confirmative negative swabs in EH was significantly higher compared with DH at week 2 (21.1% versus 3.6%; P=0.017) and 4 (60.0% versus 19.6%; P<0.001). At univariate, EH differed from DH for several disease severity and clinical management parameters. Nevertheless, after accounting for the differences, Cox regression showed early LMWH administration (hazard ratio [HR] 2.91 [1.51, 5.63]; P=0.002) and higher lymphocytes nadir (HR 1.04 [1.01, 1.08]; P=0.020) as predictors of shorter time to swab negativity. CONCLUSIONS: This potential antiviral and/or immune-modulating activity of LMWH needs further in vivo confirmations by randomized controlled trials.

On the SARS-CoV-2 "Variolation Hypothesis": No Association Between Viral Load of Index Cases and COVID-19 Severity of Secondary Cases.

Background: Emerging evidence supports the "variolation hypothesis" in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), but the derivative idea that the viral load of index cases may predict disease severity in secondary cases could be unsubstantiated. We assessed whether the prevalence of symptomatic infections, hospitalization, and deaths in household contacts of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases differed according to the SARS-CoV-2 PCR cycle threshold (Ct) from nasal-pharyngeal swab at diagnosis of linked index cases. Methods: Cross-sectional study on household contacts of COVID-19 cases randomly sampled from all the infections diagnosed in March at our Microbiology Laboratory (Amedeo di Savoia, Turin). Data were retrospectively collected by phone interviews and from the Piedmont regional platform for COVID-19 emergency. Index cases were classified as high (HVl) and low viral load (LVl) according to two exploratory cut-offs of RdRp gene Ct value. Secondary cases were defined as swab confirmed or symptom based likely when not tested but presenting compatible clinical picture. Results: One hundred thirty-two index cases of whom 87.9% symptomatic and 289 household contacts were included. The latter were male and Caucasian in 44.3 and 95.8% of cases, with a median age of 34 years (19-57). Seventy-four were swab confirmed and other 28 were symptom based likely secondary cases. Considering both, the contacts of HVl and LVl did not differ in the prevalence of symptomatic infections nor COVID-19-related hospitalization and death. No difference in median Ct of index cases between symptomatic and asymptomatic, hospitalized and not hospitalized, or deceased and survived secondary cases was found. Negative findings were confirmed after adjusting for differences in time between COVID-19 onset and swab collection of index cases (median 5 days) and after removing pediatric secondary cases. Conclusions: The amount of SARS-CoV-2 of the source at diagnosis does not predict clinical outcomes of linked secondary cases. Considering the impelling release of assays for SARS-CoV-2 RNA exact quantification, these negative findings should inform clinical and public health strategies on how to interpret and use the data.

Diagnostic SARS-CoV-2 Cycle Threshold Value Predicts Disease Severity, Survival, and Six-Month Sequelae in COVID-19 Symptomatic Patients.

To date, there is no severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2-(SARS-CoV-2)-specific prognostic biomarker available. We assessed whether SARS-CoV-2 cycle threshold (Ct) value at diagnosis could predict novel CoronaVirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity, clinical manifestations, and six-month sequelae. Hospitalized and outpatient cases were randomly sampled from the diagnoses of March 2020 and data collected at 6 months by interview and from the regional database for COVID-19 emergency. Patients were stratified according to their RNA-dependent-RNA-polymerase Ct in the nasopharyngeal swab at diagnosis as follows: Group A ≤ 20.0, 20.0 < group B ≤ 28.0, and Group C > 28.0. Disease severity was classified according to a composite scale evaluating hospital admission, worst oxygen support required, and survival. Two hundred patients were included, 27.5% in Groups A and B both, 45.0% in Group C; 90% of patients were symptomatic and 63.7% were hospitalized. The median time from COVID-19 onset to swab collection was five days. Lethality, disease severity, type, and number of signs and symptoms, as well as six-month sequelae distributed inversely among the groups with respect to SARS-CoV-2 Ct. After controlling for confounding, SARS-CoV-2 Ct at diagnosis was still associated with COVID-19-related death (p = 0.023), disease severity (p = 0.023), number of signs and symptoms (p < 0.01), and presence of six-month sequelae (p < 0.01). Early quantification of SARS-CoV-2 may be a useful predictive marker to inform differential strategies of clinical management and resource allocation.